Today we’re giving the first of three topline reports on our just-concluded survey on nonprofit fundraisers’ 2010 fundraising plans. More tomorrow and Friday. Thanks to the 235 fundraisers who participated.

We’ll start with the general mood and expectations.

We asked a broad question: "Looking ahead, do you expect to raise more money in 2010 than in 2009?" Half of respondents (51%) do expect to raise more money in 2010; 40% about the same; and only 9% less.

Of those expecting to raise more in 2010, 65% expect the increase to be 10% or less.

Compared with responses to our mid-2009 survey, we’d term the latest results "creeping optimism." Back in July, 34% of respondents said their fundraising to that point in the year was doing better than in 2008, and 32% were feeling "more optimistic" by July than they were at the beginning of 2009. Now, 51% are expecting to raise more in 2010.

This modest optimism is reflected also in response to the following statements:

• I’m bullish on 2010, and so I plan to ramp up my fundraising aggressively — 20% agree
• I think 2010 will yield better fundraising returns than 2009, but only modestly, so I’ll be investing cautiously — 56% agree
• I think donors are still "feeling the pain" and will give at about the same rate in the coming year, so I plan to pretty much "stay the course" in 2010 — 25% agree

All in all, an impressive degree of optimism given how low fundraisers were feeling only six months ago … to say nothing of one year ago!

We asked respondents who expected to raise more money in 2010 how they expected their fundraising performance to improve. And whether this is wishful thinking, or reflects extrapolation from current experience, three areas stand out:

• Better prospecting results — 62% expect this to improve (another 15%, improve significantly)
• Major donors increase giving — 63% expect to improve (15%, improve significantly)
• More online giving — 66% expect to improve (17%, improve significantly)

With online giving, we always wonder whether this bullishness reflects an expectation of new money/donors, or just a shift in channels.

Respondents were most pessimistic about foundation giving, with only 31% expecting improvement in this area (and 10%, significant improvement).

Finally, a bit more than half of respondents expect improvements in the basic performance of their house files — higher average gifts (50%, will improve), higher renewal rates (56%, will improve), better response to special appeals (60%, will improve).

We find this a bit surprising … disappointingly low. Back in July, cultivation of existing donors was far and away the focus of our survey respondents, with 83% indicating donor retention as their highest priority. Maybe it’s tougher work than fundraisers expected.

Tomorrow, we’ll report on how fundraisers plan to allocate their fundraising investments in 2010. And on Friday, we’ll look at their "greatest challenges" for the coming year.

Roger & Tom

P.S. Complete results of our 2010 Fundraising Plans survey, including  all stats and verbatim comments, will be emailed to The Agitator’s Premium subscribers on Friday.