This week the Atlas of Giving released their most recent month-by-month giving forecast for 2014. They forecast that national giving is expected to grow 5.3% for the calendar year, and 4.3% for the next 12 months through January,2015.

The Atlas tracks giving across all charitable sectors including higher education and religion. It then uses a series of econometric and propriety models to arrive at its forecast.

I talked to Rob Mitchell, Atlas’ CEO, to get his take on 2014 results to date and his insights on what lies ahead. Here’s his takeaway:

• Human Needs organizations and Education had a “spectacular” January — up nearly 14% over the same period last year.

• January’s giving overall was only about 1% less than total giving for December, usually the best month of the year.

• Currently it looks like the best month for scheduling an appeal or event will be June, 2014.

• This year, December, usually the banner month, is forecast to be down significantly from December, 2013.

• Human Needs and Environmental charities are projected to continue to outperform other sectors, growing at 8%.

• Growth in church giving is projected to be less than half of the growth rate of the leading sectors.

I asked Rob where he saw the biggest opportunity for 2014.

Good news if you receive money from foundations. He expects that to be up almost 8% in 2014. Rob explained that foundation portfolios are fat with the gains in the stock market over the past 3 years and it is the asset values from one or two years ago that determine what foundations must grant this year.

Rob also told me about a new and quite affordable customized forecasting service Atlas of Giving is now offering. For $199 a year, organizations can receive a monthly forecast specially tailored for their specific sector.

The custom forecast enables organizations to benchmark their results against Atlas’ national benchmark … to adjust budgets and promotion schedules to take into consideration the ‘best’ and ‘worst’ fundraising periods … and to set realistic expectations with management and boards.

You can view a video on this and find out the details by clicking below.

What process do you follow to forecast the year ahead?

Roger