Fundraisers, unlike practitioners in most other sectors, mostly navigate their way forward by steering through the rear view mirror.

Off hand I can’t think of any other group, with their future so dependent on the economy and other key events, who live by the “past is prologue” mantra. In today’s world, that dependence can deliver some nasty surprises.

That’s just one of the reasons I’m intrigued by The Philanthromax Atlas of Giving, a sophisticated FORECASTING service that alerts fundraisers to the good news – or bad news – of what lies ahead.

Yesterday the Atlas (view with a free subscription) released its most recent preview, as if to illustrate the danger of steering through the rear view mirror.

• Although the Atlas reports that U.S. Charitable Giving was up a whopping 8.1% in the First Quarter of 2011, don’t break out the champagne in anticipation of a banner year.

• Because the Atlas also forecasts that it’s downhill starting in June with 2011 expected to end at just a disappointing 3.8% increase overall.

According to Rob Mitchell, former Chief Development Officer with The American Cancer Society and now CEO of Philanthromax, there are two key reasons for the coming downturn over the next three quarters of 2011:

• The start of the 2012 presidential  election campaign fundraising, and;

• The “glacial” speed of growth of the U.S. economy coupled with fears of inflation and the deficit.

“Historically, election campaign fundraising has a negative impact on the charitable giving economy. With the U.S. economy growing at glacial speed, much of the giving momentum gain produced so far this year will be eroded as election campaigns divert funds that would have gone to nonprofits. The impact will become more pronounced as electioneering activity increases—especially if the economy is not growing fast enough to blunt much of the blow,” notes Mitchell.

So much for the bad news. The good-to-great news is that – at last! – we fundraisers have access to a forward-looking toolset. Philanthromax ‘s forecasting model uses over 50 variables in its calculations and has been back-tested using 40 years of comprehensive giving data. They claim their calculations correlate to overall giving in the U.S. at a rate of 99.5%.

Best of all, this forecasting tool can be calibrated for individual nonprofits and sectors within the nonprofit world. So, while Giving USA and Blackbaud’s Index of Charitable Giving can document the past, those less concerned with dwelling in the past and more focused on the future will want to check out the latest from The Atlas of Giving.

Roger