A belief, once firmly held, is hard to change, even when the evidence and data overwhelmingly refute that belief.

Take male hand size.  We all know it correlates with…lower fumble rate among NFL Quarterbacks (what were you thinking?)

Every year the NFL evaluates college players and their pro worthiness with something called the “combine”.  One of the more time-honored metrics beyond 40-yard dash speed and bench press repetitions is the QB’s hand size.

Why?  It’s believed larger hands correlate with lower QB fumble rates.  Professional scouts whose job it is to evaluate and rank NFL talent have been quoted as saying hand size is more important than arm strength.  Their opinion impacts draft position, which, in turn, impacts financial futures to the tune of millions of dollars.

There’s just one problem.  It’s utter nonsense– mythology perpetuated by anecdote and the unflappable confirmation bias that causes us to discount what runs counter to existing beliefs.

There is a near zero correlation between hand measurements and actual fumble rates.  In fact, there’s a much higher correlation with the number of letters in the Quarterback’s last name and fumble rate.

To add insult to measurement, there’s a physiological link between hand grip strength and fumble rate and there’s a $30 device called a dynamometer that’s been around for decades that measures grip strength with extreme precision.

This boils down to one inextricable fact: the $15 billion dollar NFL has been making a choice about the most important position on the field, based in part, on a measurement that doesn’t measure anything.

What are the Fundraising Equivalents to Hand Size?

What are those beliefs that simply won’t die because of availability and confirmation bias?  Here are but a few.

• The more we ask, the more we get.  The original sin in fundraising is believing people give because we ask.  If only humans were that simple.

• Donors are all the same. This isn’t spoken but looking at how much of the sector operates, it seems to be the default, unspoken assumption.  One-size-fits-all treatment.  Or, the random nth test that implicitly assumes everyone in the test group is the same.

• That “statistical significance” is some sort of gold standard. There is an enormous amount of noise in any direct marketing test that significance testing is not sensitized too.  Make the sample large enough and any difference, however small, can be flagged as significant.  One of our colleagues ran a 15-way split test in the mail.  There were 5 different “big ideas” each with three variations.  Results showed big, statistical differences across the 15 treatments.  The agency had an instant narrative to fit the results and hey, it was statistically significant.  The problem?  There was a rather major screw up along the way and everybody got the exact same mailing.    Lots and lots of noise.  Especially if the test ideas are random.

• That people give because of emotion.   Emotion is the goal, not the cause.  People do not give because we made them sad in the appeal.  They give because if we made them sad, their goal is to not be sad.  If they believe based on past experience or what you convey in the appeal that giving is the best way to feel better they’ll give to achieve that emotional goal.  But, just making people feel something with a solicitation is one hand clapping – at best.

• Generational differences are real and important. Another blue in the face moment here for Agitator Editors and DVer’s.  We’ve debunked this generational mumbo jumbo many times over but frankly, it’s Don Quixote tilting at windmills.

The late Senator Patrick Moynihan once quipped that “everyone is entitled to their own opinion, just not their own facts.”   We all have our own limited “fact” base that forms an opinion and yet,  that opinion is often unmovable.

The best opinions, even firmly held, are either updated or discarded as new evidence emerges fueled by the slow burning embers of a continuous improvement mindset.

Or, maybe the hand size of the charity’s CEO correlates with response rate…

Kevin