Our US readers are heading off today for a well-deserved three-day weekend, with the celebration of it’s-almost-summer Memorial Day.

A major parade day when I was a kid in small town New Jersey … we kids got to march in our Scout uniforms or sport team uniforms. I had a choice, since I was both a Boy Scout and played shortstop for my Little League team, the Police (we didn’t have Sting).

[We weren’t a terribly creative community, our four teams were named after their sponsors — the Police Department, the Fire Department, the American Legion, and L.E. Carpenter … a vinyl flooring and textile manufacturer that I now realize seriously polluted the small river where I regularly caught, then ate, sunfish. I digress, but it could explain some things.]

However, despite my fond parade memories, today I must rain on the latest parade celebrating an apparent uptick in philanthropy in the US.

The Lilly Family School of Philanthropy at Indiana University, with fundraising consultants Marts&Lundy, just published The Philanthropy Outlook 2015 & 2016.

Most coverage of this worthy report has focused on the ‘macro’ news:

• Growth in total giving in 2015 and 2016 is expected to outpace predicted growth in US GDP in these years, pushing the predicted proportion of total giving to GDP to 2.02% (compared with 1.99% in 2013).
• Contributions from all sources of giving are expected to grow in both 2015 (4.8%) and 2016 (4.9%).

Mention just that to your CEO and both she and you will enjoy your long weekend with peace of mind.

And especially if your job is focused on foundations or corporate support, you can enjoy an extra beer because those sources are leading the pace. You need read no further into this post. Have a great holiday, but no drinking and driving.

However, The Agitator research department notes that most of our readers are laboring in the direct response giving domain. And in that vineyard, there’s cause for alarm.

There’s still projected growth — 4.4% for 2015 and 4.1% for 2016 (driven, they say, by projected growth in personal incomes and household net worth).

But here’s the problem: In 2015 and 2016, the report estimates that 79% of all US giving will come from individuals (and estates). However, between the mid-1970s and early 2000s, this percentage ranged between 85% and 90%.

In short, the individual giving share of the pie seems to be shrinking. Noting this trend, the report advises:

“Seasoned fundraisers and nonprofit leaders know that philanthropy depends on relationships. Given the declining proportion of giving by individuals/households and estates over the last four decades, fundraisers should develop meaningful ways for cultivating relationships with donors over the long-term. Philanthropic gifts of any size are given as a result of relationships built on trust and confidence.”

Uh huh!

So, for all you Agitator readers in the individual giving space (and especially in direct response fundraising), in between beers this weekend, figure out how you’re going to do that. The bad fundraising PR Roger reported this week won’t help much, will it?!

Bottoms up!

Tom

P.S. The heavy drinkers amongst our readers will reassure themselves that it’s strong growth in foundation giving and corporate giving that just makes the individual giving slice of the pie appear smaller. After all, 4% growth in individual giving is still growth. But if you really think small donation givers are multiplying, it’s not the beer, it’s the Kool-Aid you’re drinking!

I would love to have a chorus of comments to this post from readers reassuring me that their direct response giving will grow — in both numbers of donors and net value — over the next two years.