George C Parker is a legend among con people.  The man actually sold the Brooklyn Bridge.  Several times.  Some of his victims were picked up by police as they attempted to erect toll booths.

I think of him every time fundraising advice begins with the words “all you have to do is…”.  A decade or two ago, this was often followed by “put up a web site” or “email your supporters.”  Necessary conditions to be sure, but not sufficient.

Present day, the magic beans might have to do with social media.  Can nonprofits (especially small ones) abandon a mail program and earn their daily bread with frequent posting and consistent updates?

A recent study looked at the determinants of success on giving days – specifically, how much did organizations pushing on the social media flywheel impact the amount they raised on Omaha’s giving day on Facebook.

And there’s some evidence for increased effort equaling increased donations.  When controlling for other factors, including organizational size, there was:

• A 1.1% increase in donations for every 10% increase in organizational likes
• A 2.6% increase in donations for every 10% increase in posts about Omaha Gives
• A 2% increase in donations for every 10% increase in shares about Omaha Gives

But the biggest determiner of how much an organization would get is… organizational size.  Larger organizations got larger gifts, controlling for how much they posted and how many likes they had.  The average organization with revenues of $250K-$1 million had 80% more donations than those under $250K.

Doing the math, a small organization would have to post three times as many times as a medium organization about Omaha Gives to get the same leverage.  Or have more than seven times as many organizational likes.  In other words, if someone tells you that social media success is all about frequency, they, like George C Parker, have a bridge to sell you (whether they know it or not).

This just isn’t the case for other media.  For example, small nonprofits, on average, raise more per fundraising email sent out likely because of smaller, more selective lists and fewer such emails.

The great and not-so-great part of social media is that it’s social.  It is contingent on snowball effects; you see something based on whether I interacted with it and vice versa.  As with other media, you can succeed in this realm with highly specific and individually relevant content.  And as with other media, it’s slow going for those trying to ask their way into prosperity.

Kevin