More recent donors are more likely to give than less recent.  Is there anything more accepted in fundraising?  Comparing the recent donor group to the less recent is a bit like judging who’s hungrier based on who just ate.  The just ate group will statistically look like “eaters” more than the haven’t eaten group but any restaurant would prefer the latter for today’s sale and tomorrow’s.

Millions of donors are “anniversary” donors, consistently giving once a year, no more, no less.  This group is likely to be a large segment on your donor file.

For these donors less recency = higher likelihood to give.  This chart shows this anniversary donor group for two different charities.

The shape of both lines is similar, showing increased likelihood to give (y axis) as each day passes and the donor becomes less recent but closer to their anniversary date.  Only the latter matters to the donor, which brings us to the main difference in these lines.

• The Dark Orange Charity solicits their anniversary donors every month.  This charity ignores what matters to the donor.
• The Light Orange Charity only solicits these end of year donors towards end of year.  This charity tailors their approach to match the donor’s preference.

Dark Orange donors had their in/mail box fill up with emails and letters. December finally arrived, and though most gave their usual annual gift, it felt more out of obligation than enthusiasm.  But a few of these folks tuned out and stopped giving.

Light Orange donors got a few touchpoints to build a sense of competence and connection and by the time December rolled around, they were excited to give again.

The $250 difference in LTV is stark.   This isn’t just an anniversary donor thing.  Every single donor is less likely to eat (give again) right after eating (giving).  Every single one.  You assume the opposite with more recent = more likely to give again because you’re comparing donors instead of matching asking to the person’s individual behavior.

Giving isn’t about topping off a tank that’s always running low.  I just ate, I don’t want to eat again for awhile.

Kevin