New Era Begins In 17 Years
We all know, thanks to Blackbaud, that online fundraising accounted for 6.4% of all fundraising in the US in 2013. So the direct mail army that drives direct marketed individual giving sniffs at that puny percentage, and goes back to work flexing its muscles and pumping up the nonprofit sector.
Meantime, however, the growth rate in online fundraising in the US during 2013 was 13.5%. If 13.5% is sustained and compounded (certainly one could argue the likelihood of that; but some would argue it will accelerate even faster), here’s what online fundraising’s share of the pie begins to look like:
2014 7.3%
2015 8.2%
2016 9.4%
2017 10.6%
2018 12.1%
2019 13.7%
2020 15.5%
2021 17.6%
2022 20.0%
2023 22.7%
If you’re a direct mail fundraiser planning to work in the biz for only another ten years, you can relax. No need to learn anything new. Let the kids take care of it. By then, still only 1 in 5 of your nonprofit’s individual giving will come online. But then the pace quickens …
2024 25.8%
2025 29.3%
2026 33.2%
2027 37.8%
2028 42.8%
2029 48.6%
2030 55.1%
In 2030, only seven additional years, online fundraising passes the 50% threshold. Will we even have a post office then?!
If you plan to stick around that long, you’d better re-read our post, ‘F’ Grade For Online Giving. There we reported on Dunham+Company’s Online Fundraising Scorecard. If you’re under age 50, take a look. Think of it as the 30/50/50 rule.
Tom
3 responses to “New Era Begins In 17 Years”
Behavioral Science Q & A
Integrating an individual giving appeal with other communications from a charity can have both positive and negative effects, and the outcome largely depends on how it’s executed. Advantages of Integration Brand Consistency: Maintaining a consistent appearance and messaging across all communications can reinforce the org’s brand identity and strengthen brand recognition and trust among your […]
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I’m not aware of any in-market tests specifically comparing recurring vs. gift frequency language. I suspect the answer might not be the same with all gift frequencies, nor with all people. It sounds like a great opportunity for you to test and find out what works for your audience. Based on the literature, here’s a couple […]
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Based on what we know from existing data, those renewal notices can actually be pretty effective in getting people to donate. They tap into our psychology – creating a sense of urgency, reminding us of past support, and using personalization to make the message hit home. They’re playing on our natural tendencies to feel obligated […]
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Interesting question. I had a quick look at the testing done on this topic. On the positive side, in all cases, over half of donors decide to cover the fee. In some cases, it goes as high as 65%. Not a negligible percentage at all. Here’s another test from iRaiser showing consistent results (see point […]
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There’s just one thing to consider when designing a supporter journey: the supporter. More specifically, you need to take into account: Who the supporter is i.e. their identity, which is the reason they support this cause, and their personality, which describes the way they “see” and process the world. These will determine the kind of […]
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I’m not an expert in this but a quick search surfaced this article on the effect of tax reforms on 2019’s charitable giving. The researchers didn’t find a reduction. Actually, they observed an “increase in charitable contributions in 2019, even with the lower tax rates and the dramatically smaller number of taxpayers who itemize their […]
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Tom, the fall off of direct mail will be much faster and much more massive than your numbers predict. Read The Innovator’s Dilemma by Christensen. In fact the fall off has already begun and a few large organizations are already reacting … American Cancer Society et al. But thinking that online fundraising will look like direct mail … only digital … Is silly. Roger’s long sought alternative to “massive incrementalism” that presages a major shift in fundraising methodology is coming quicker than most realize and in truth, is already here … and will take many forms … see Charity:Water et al. The common thread … 100% online!
Tom…
While that’s not exactly how Blackbaud calculates that metric, I can see where you’re doing with it.
A few things worth pointing out for comparative purposes:
– In 2013, online e-commerce was 6% of all retail sales in the US. So from that perspective, donors are embracing online giving slightly faster.
– The first smartphone was commercially released in 1996 and it took 17 years for more email to be read on a mobile phone than a desktop computer.
– The first interconnected networking system happened in 1969, but it wasn’t until 1991 that we got the World Wide Web and another two years before the first web browser arrived.
We are seeing the slow and inevitable shift from one thing to another. And as with any technology it doesn’t happen as fast as we might think.
I would also caution people not to confuse channel of communication with channel of transaction. This is why direct mail, phone, radio, TV, etc aren’t going anywhere. And nothing is ever 100% one thing or another. That’s not how the world works.
I don’t quote Bill Gates that often, but I think he nailed it with this observation: “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction.”
Tom, love the post. Steve, love your follow up reply even more!