Yale economics professor Robert Shiller wrote an interesting column in the NY Times on Saturday. He talked about the 1930s roots of "recession" versus "depression" and the different mindsets associated with each.

"Recessions" can be worked out and overcome … they have "normal" cycles and, importantly, endings. "Depressions" connote something far darker, more sinister, maybe uncontrollable.

His underlying point — communicated by the column’s title, What if a Recovery Is All in Your Head? — is about the efficacy of "autosuggestion" and self-fulfilling prophecy. In this case, we come to believe the recession is ending, we confidence grows, we start spending, more spending actually kicks the economy into gear.

Less erudite folks might think of this simply as the power of positive thinking, or momentum.

I wonder if donors are entering the "I believe" stage of this recession, and will resume their old giving habits. As we reported last week on The Agitator’s 2010 Fundraising Plans survey, most fundraisers seem to be in the "I believe" stage (we actually called it "creeping optimism")!

Or, should we be thinking in more transformative terms? Is there something about this "recession" — as some call it, The Great Recession! — that presages a more systemic disruption of the old ways of everything "economic … including charitable giving patterns and psychology?

Here is an article reporting on such a view of emergent consumer psychology. It describes research by Decitica, a market research firm. Says Decitica:

"1. The effects of the Great Recession on consumer behavior are so profound that many of the assumptions  underpinning consumer segmentation are no longer valid; and,

2. Marketing strategies that do not fully recognize the diversity of consumers’ recession experiences won’t have the  desired potency in the post-recession world.

It is undeniable that this recession has shaken the bedrock of American consumerism.  Many have accepted this radical  change as the “new normal,” and not just a cyclical phenomenon."

Decitica posits four basic consumer types going forward:

• Steadfast Frugalists (20%)
• Involuntary Penny-Pinchers (29%)
• Pragmatic Spenders (29%)
• Apathetic Materialists (22%)

It’s an interesting formulation, based on how individuals say they treat prices and generic brands, how they approach saving, and their confidence in their own ability to control their spending behavior in various ways.

Dectiica tells us that for almost everyone (whatever their age, income, education), the new norm will be spending restraint.

Uh Oh!

A. Will this be true?

B. Will it be true of giving behavior? For example, are the days of giving to a dozen or more organizations over?

C. What might be a corresponding typology for donors going forward?

Something to ponder while carving your turkey later this week!

Tom