Past giving predicts future giving, and that’s where the circular logic of donor understanding begins. It’s like saying, someone is on time because they tend to be punctual. True, but not useful.

Yes, past behavior can improve efficiency. But you can efficient your way out of business. What this sector needs is more effectiveness—not just predictive modeling but causal understanding. And that’s where most fundraising models fall apart.

The Habit Trap in Fundraising

I used to dismiss the importance of past behavior beyond prediction. But I was wrong.

What I overlooked was why past behavior predicts future behavior: habit.
Habits—good and bad—are at the root of fundraising success. And unfortunately, our sector has more bad habit giving than good.

How so? Look at these common patterns:

• The “oft-asked, never givers”
• The “give once, not againers”
• The “first 3-month quitters” in monthly giving

In reality, our job isn’t just to create good giving habits—it’s to break bad ones.

Breaking Bad Habits in Fundraising

Nowhere is this more obvious than direct mail in the U.S. and face-to-face (F2F) fundraising outside the U.S.

• Direct mail is a small, overfished pond, where the same people are mailed over and over. The donors are the extreme minority. Those who ignore it? They’ve formed a habit of not giving.
• F2F canvassing in Canada, the UK, mainland Europe, and Australia follows the same pattern—most people have developed a habit of avoiding, ignoring, or dismissing fundraisers.

What Makes a Habit a Habit?

Think of behaviors on a spectrum:

• Frequent, automatic habits (drinking coffee, brushing teeth)
• Infrequent, deliberate behaviors (voting, donating)

Unlike brushing your teeth, donating isn’t a subconscious, automatic action for most people. But not donating often is. People toss solicitations in the bin—physical or digital—without a thought. That’s their habit. And yet, we keep treating these people the same way, reinforcing their existing behavior. More of the same just entrenches their bad habit.

So, How Do You Break a Bad Habit?

Since habits are tied to context and cues, the key is disrupting the stable environment that reinforces non-giving. Here’s how:

• Change the Format – If it always looks the same, it’ll get the same result. Think VR for canvassing, high-production mall sets, or breaking the standard “urgent” direct mail look.
• Introduce a New Wrinkle – Door-to-door canvassers convert better when they leave a door hanger the day before their visit. What’s your email or mail equivalent?
• Rethink the Copy – The standard pressure-heavy “urgent gram” is a one-way ticket to the trash. Say something different—something identity-based, autonomy-supportive, or curiosity-driven.
• Adjust the Timing – Instead of the usual December deluge, try August. Instead of mailing at the start of the month (bill season), try mid-month.

The Real Takeaway

Fundraising isn’t just about getting people to give. It’s about breaking their habit of ignoring us.

And that won’t happen by doing more of the same.

Kevin