The Fundraising Long View

November 8, 2012      Admin

Much will be written about the fundraising and communication tactics of the winning Obama campaign and how they apply (or don’t) to nonprofit fundraising (or at least cause fundraising).

But it’s the nation’s demographic trends — reported here by Pew Research — that most strike me in terms of impact on future fundraising strategies. And the trends are brought into sharp relief by the extent of support Obama received from racial minorities — he received 80% of the minority vote. And the minority vote was a record 28% of the votes cast.

As of 2011, the US is 17% Hispanic, 12% Black, 5% Asian (= 34%).

As of 2050, the US is projected to be 29% Hispanic, 13% Black, 9% Asian (= 51%).

Obviously declining is the non-Hispanic white population … it will drop from 63% to 47%.

OK, so fundraisers might think they can relax a few decades … even retire, still happily raising money from white folk.

But the fundraising market will change year by year. As Pew points out, among the 4.4 million 18 year-olds in 2011, only 56% were white, while 21% were Hispanic, 15% were black and 4% Asian. The percentage of white 18 year-olds will steadily decline.

How soon will this demographic shift matter to your organization? To the Republican Party, it already matters … big time!

Tom

 

2 responses to “The Fundraising Long View”

  1. Dave C says:
    November 8, 2012 at 10:45 am

    My suggestion is to figure out how to get more of your funding from the government or expect to shrink. What Obama voters want is a more robust government safety net, and that’s going to cost money. Money that will come out of the pockets of your potential donors. In order to create support for higher taxes on the so called rich, politicians and the press have been busy maligning the top one or five percent, the people currently paying more than 50% of all taxes. One idea already put forward by the Obama administration is to do away with tax breaks for charitable donations to increase federal revenue. As success and wealth become more socially unacceptable, more potential donors will become far more circumspect about their money. At the same time, the middle class will rationalize that they don’t need to give as much because the government will take care of it. Immigrants, former residents of Europe and Central and South America, come from cultures where charitable giving is less the cultural norm. Americans on average give five to ten times more money to charitable organizations. Due to all the above factors, we can expect both the number of donors and their level of giving to shrink dramatically over the next few decades, and the non-profit sector will decline with it. A permanent democrat majority will accelerate this process.

  2. Chip Heartfield says:
    November 8, 2012 at 7:02 pm

    Another factor is assimilation. Will the giving characteristics of the Hispanic population change over time as they become somewhat more acculturated, or is there already so much emphasis on keeping one’s own ethnic identity that it will be much more a case of fundraisers having to radically change their approaches? Here is an article from a few years back which looks at this issue for marketers from a variety of angles: http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/consumer/u-s-hispanics-and-acculturation/

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