We Overshot
Obama barely gave us enough time to embarass ourselves with our fundraising predictions … he must have been reading The Agitator to time his fundraising announcement!
He reported today that he raised $25 million in the 1st Quarter, from 100,000 donors. Of this, $6.9 million was raised online from “more than half” of those donors.
Roger predicted $29.5 million … he's close enough to maintain some respectability.
I predicted $35 million. I can't say it was wishful thinking … I don't have a candidate yet.
But to try desperately to hold on to some credibility, I will say that my “prediction algorithm” did nail Obama's online take … I predicted $6.7 million in online contributions.
Where I erred was in my high dollar estimate … it appears that Obama made very few asks for the full $4600 a donor can contribute if giving toward both the primaries and the general. So his effective contribution “cap” was $2300. The evidence is in the fact that he reports at least $23.5 million is available for primary spending.
It's possible that Hillary won the overall 1st Quarter sweepstakes by asking many more of her donors for the full $4600 … she hasn't disclosed how much of her take is for the primaries. Indeed, it's possible that Obama actually is ahead in primary funds.
We'll try to do better the next time. Maybe I'll stick to a prediction of online totals!
Tom
Behavioral Science Q & A
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Based on what we know from existing data, those renewal notices can actually be pretty effective in getting people to donate. They tap into our psychology – creating a sense of urgency, reminding us of past support, and using personalization to make the message hit home. They’re playing on our natural tendencies to feel obligated […]
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I’m not an expert in this but a quick search surfaced this article on the effect of tax reforms on 2019’s charitable giving. The researchers didn’t find a reduction. Actually, they observed an “increase in charitable contributions in 2019, even with the lower tax rates and the dramatically smaller number of taxpayers who itemize their […]
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