When Will Direct Mail Die?
I just read a blog post by a fundraising youngster, Derrick Feldmann. From his photo, he looks like one of them/thar ‘Millennials’.
Derrick’s post, which by definition I received and read online, is titled, The Paradox of Direct Mail, and makes the observation: “For many new and younger donors, direct mail is viewed as intrusive, messy, and a waste of resources. So why do so many organizations continue to embrace it?”
He answers his question with the obvious response: “The answer is simple: It works.”
Derrick cites the 2012 Channel Preference Study from Epsilon, in which 73% of respondent consumers said they prefer direct mail for brand communications. Indeed, 62% of Americans say they actually like checking their mailbox for mail.
And of course, applied to fundraising, that stated preference holds up — according to Blackbaud, only about 7% of charitable gifts are made online. And presumably a fair percentage of these are driven by direct mail.
So let’s return to that present direct mail reality … It works.
And ask … for how long?
Here are four theories … each a bit cheeky.
- Derrick thinks ‘the end’ might come via some disruptive technology. More disruptive than ubiquitous mobile connectivity? What’s your prediction for a disruptive technology? Personally, I’m waiting for something really retro — an online appeal that is digitally presented in the format of a mailing piece that I ‘open’ and read, with various components ‘inside’. Something using a platform like the digital magazines at Issuu. Can any Agitator reader point me to a ‘digital mail piece’ … it has to be more than a glorified email or an e-newsletter with lots of links?
- Maybe ‘the end’ (in the US) will come when the US Postal Service finally shuts the door on home delivery of mail, or makes it so pricey that achieving acceptable ROIs on direct mail appeals is simply impossible. Any predictions on when that day of reckoning might happen?
- Or maybe when the last Boomer dies. Although as one of the commenters on Derrick’s post observes, there’s evidence that as younger folks age, they actually revert to a preference for mail. If that dynamic hold true, direct mail would never die (but for #1 0r #2 above).
- Or maybe when the fundraising Rapture comes. At that point, all (Christian) direct mail fundraisers will be uplifted to their final reward … while all you online fundraisers will be left to cope miserably for the final seven years.
What do you think? Will direct mail finally die? What will kill it?
Tom
P.S. For some of our previous musings on this topic, see Direct Mail Survives … and New Era Begins … and Chuck Pruitt Is Mad! And from Ken Burnett, Is direct mail finally dead?
8 responses to “When Will Direct Mail Die?”
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My guess is that the end will come when Congress ends subsidies for non-profit mail. This may make it prohibitively expensive to get an acceptable ROI, and unfortunately we have already seen this happening in countries like Germany, Japan, India, Canada, etc. where there are no subsidies and where direct mail volumes are down sharply. As to the date, if you are pessimistic you might say five years; optimist will say ten. Gather ye rosebuds while ye may.
PS. I am referring mainly to direct mail acquisition. “Cultivation” or renewal mailings should be able to survive cuts in postage subsidies, as they have in other countries where postage subsidies have never existed.
I’m just thrilled that Derrick doesn’t go the way of too many “youth” and state that everything off line is old and stupid and and … Good for Derrick.
DM will *never* die because we will always physically exist and will always respond to physical communication.
Yes, delivery costs will get more expensive, but rather than imagining postal services shutting the door on home delivery altogether, it’s actually easier to imagine technology adapting to completely change the way home delivery works – to the point that it gets cheaper again.
Add that to the fact that we’re getting better at DM and people are more and more looking for balance in their on-line/off-line life and I’d predict DM will be around as long as we are.
The most successful fundraisers will be the ones that don’t write-off either on-line or off-line.
“Does that mean fundraisers should ignore the preferences of their donors, … acting on what donors actually respond to rather than what they say they want?
I’m not so sure.” – Derrick Feldman, Achieve Creative Agency
Yes… yes they should. Knowing how donors actually behave is integral to fundraising.
It’s an interesting form of “disruption”. When opinion gets disrupted by the reality of what actually works.
I HAVE DEVELOPED THE DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY YOU ARE HAVING TROUBLE ENVISIONING.
You have to see it to understand it. You won’t be able to imagine it otherwise. It is currently in BETA and we are looking for more testers.
Some of the largest, most respected fundraising organizations in the world have already embraced it.
Feel free to arrange a demonstration anytime with one of my Solutionists (we don’t call them salespeople) at http://www.imarketsmart.com and mention this blog comment because I would like to be on that call.
NOTE: My firm still recommends direct mail when it is appropriate. It doesn’t work for everyone, every time, for every strategy. There is a time and a place for direct mail but any channel or vehicle should be selected wisely.
I admit to being a little nervous about something more disruptive than (cell) phones. As it is, I grumble whenever my phone rings!
I tend to think Simon’s right, though. At least that feels right to me. But Denisa’s absolutely right that looking at behavior is more telling than opinion.
I know one national ministry that hired someone who hates direct mail. The new strategy involved spending tens of thousands of dollars to acquire new donors on-line. Income is down and after all of the expense, the process netted only a handful of new donors and far less money than using direct mail. I don’t know when direct mail will die, but I do trying to pretend that it’s already dead can kill you.